Will 2026 be as successful as the previous year? Banks speak of growth, but risks have not disappeared

Growth conditioned by several variables

The outlooks of Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan for 2026 speak of continued growth of the global economy. According to JPMorgan, GDP grew steadily in 2025, with finances flowing mainly into technology. Nevertheless, for example in the US, broader development was hampered by problems in the public sector and inflation. The bank also expects that “sticky” inflation could persist, but the first half of the year could bring an improvement in GDP. Its growth could be kick-started by the tax program signed in July 2025 with the interesting name “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act”. It brings tax cuts, and for example legal entities will benefit by more than 230 billion USD, which will support the private sector and, together with lower interest rates, reduce unemployment. However, it is also necessary to consider public debt, which potentially increases due to similar relief measures. As for interest rates, the market expects further cuts, and according to the CME FedWatch tool, this could happen as early as the March meeting of the Federal Reserve System (as of December 29, 2025). The FED itself did not signal any future steps in December and will see how the economy behaves.

Geopolitics can change sentiment

Political factors also remain a source of uncertainty. Trump’s tariffs, which brought global shocks in the spring of 2025, have slightly receded into the background, but they continue to shape geopolitical relations. Relief was brought by agreements with important partners such as the EU, Japan, or China, but Goldman Sachs nevertheless warns that tariffs may continue to create risks. Volatility could additionally be brought by a court decision regarding the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which the US president used to impose tariffs. In November, investors should prepare for elections to the US Congress, which are traditionally held halfway through the president’s term and could bring short-term volatility. Last but not least, it is necessary to mention military conflicts, which create pressure on investments.

Differences in the pace of growth

Analysts do expect growth in global GDP, but JPMorgan warns that it will be different scenarios from region to region. The driving force will remain the United States, thanks to the technology sector. Opinions on growth in Europe differ. While JPMorgan speaks of increased momentum, Morgan Stanley points to slower development. In Asia, Japan could grow under the leadership of a new prime minister, which JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs agree on. Developed markets could also prosper, including China, whose fiscal stimuli from 2025 could bear the desired fruit. Morgan Stanley is more pessimistic about China, stating in its outlook that the stimuli were slow.

Artificial intelligence as a test of expectations?

The main theme of the coming year remains artificial intelligence. Several analysts agree that investment volumes will continue to move in the billions of dollars, not only into AI but also into software and data centres. For example, Meta, whose spending estimates in 2025 rose to 70–72 billion USD, expects that in 2026 it will be significantly more. Microsoft also expects a much higher pace going forward, having spent 35 billion USD on the technology. Artificial intelligence is the driving force behind the profits of many companies, and each would like to grab its share of the AI pie, which may lead to saturation and the question of whether companies are able to meet the market’s high expectations. Looking at some financial results so far, it would seem that they are meeting them, but this is not a guarantee.

How far will the index go in the coming year?

When looking at stock indices, especially the main US benchmark – the S&P 500, the question arises as to whether the index will be able to continue its growth trend. Analysts agree that it will, but they have different views on the percentage appreciation, which range from single-digit levels to bolder double-digit ones. While, for example, UBS and Wells Fargo speak of growth of 5–7%, Morgan Stanley and LSEG expect 13% and 11%, respectively, and the research firm FactResearch speaks of as much as 15% growth in the coming year. [1] Key factors will be corporate earnings and the ability to justify investments and decisions.

Insurance in an uncertain environment?

Precious metals play an important role in investor portfolios, especially gold, while cheaper silver is also coming to the forefront. As a safe haven, they benefit from instability in global markets such as the aforementioned geopolitical and fiscal risks. In connection with artificial intelligence, demand is also growing for rare metals, for example platinum, copper, or palladium. JPMorgan expects gold to rise to as much as U5,000 USD per ounce, and in the case of silver it could be 58 USD. [2] A similar forecast for gold was also brought by Bank of America, while Goldman Sachs expects a value of 4,900 USD.

Correct decisions are important

The year 2026 will therefore be a growth year according to analysts, [3] but it is necessary to prepare for risks and volatility. Opportunities will exist, but it is necessary to consider them not only on the basis of macroeconomic data, but also events from around the world. Therefore, in connection with current developments, it is important to place emphasis on diversification, which is also recommended by analysts.

[1,2,3] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or on the current economic environment, which may change. Such statements are not a guarantee of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.

This text constitutes marketing communication. It is not a form of investment advice or investment research, nor is it an offer to engage in any transaction involving a financial instrument. The content of the text does not take into account the individual circumstances of readers, their experience or financial situation. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future results.