Revenue in the first half of 2026
Compared with approximately USD 1.2 billion a year earlier. [1]
Large customers
The company recorded at least USD 100,000 in revenue from each of them in the 12 months to 30 September 2026. [1]
Operating profit in the second quarter of 2026
Revenue exceeded operating expenses by this amount. [1]
Existing customers could drive further growth
Anthropic develops the Claude artificial intelligence models. Businesses use them to write code, process text and review documents. They can use Claude directly in the app or connect it to their own software through an application programming interface (API). [1]
Approximately 80% of revenue in the first half of 2026 came from usage-based services. If a customer consumes more at the same unit price, the amount they pay also increases. Subscriptions accounted for the remaining approximately 20% of revenue. [1]
If Claude proves useful in one team, another department can work with the already approved supplier and the existing connection to the company's software. For Anthropic, this is an opportunity to generate more revenue from the same customer.
Illustrative uses within a single customer company
Time savings and output quality determine whether a company extends use to other teams.
Spending by existing customers increased
Revenue from the same group of customers in the third quarter of 2026 reached approximately 900% of its year-earlier level. Every original USD 100 therefore became approximately USD 900. This represents an increase of about 800%. [1]
The calculation also includes customers who left or reduced their usage. Anthropic excludes subscribers to the Claude Pro and Max plans.
The second quarter brought an operating profit
The S-1 filing tracks customer spending through September 2026, but provides full financial results only through the end of June. For the second quarter, the company reported revenue of USD 11.6 billion and operating profit of USD 974 million. Every USD 100 in revenue generated approximately USD 8.43 in operating profit. The operating margin thus reached 8.4%. [1]
In the first quarter, operating expenses still exceeded revenue. In the second quarter, revenue increased by approximately 144% from the first, while operating expenses rose by approximately 65%. This difference helped the company turn an operating profit.
For the first half as a whole, the company reported an operating loss of USD 693 million. The net loss after financial items and taxes reached USD 80.7 billion. The accounting remeasurement of financial instruments had the largest impact. [1]
| USD bn | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.731 | 11.555 |
| Operating expenses | 6.398 | 10.581 |
| Operating profit/loss | −1.667 | +0.974 |
Business performance
Quarterly revenue in USD billions. Q1 2025 to Q2 2026. [1]
When does a cheaper task generate more revenue?
In September, Anthropic introduced Opus 5.5. In its tests, processing a typical task at default settings cost approximately 40% less than with Opus 5. Customer savings came from both lower prices per token and fewer tokens per task. A token is a unit of content processed by the model. [4]
In the simulation, we assume the company's revenue per comparable paid task falls by 40%. To maintain the same revenue, the company would need approximately 66.7% more tasks. If their number doubled, revenue from these tasks would increase by 20%.
Cheaper processing could make tasks worthwhile for customers that were previously uneconomical. What matters for Anthropic is how much additional paid work this generates.
Try the impact of higher usage
In this example, revenue per task falls to 60% of the original amount. If original revenue is indexed to 100, a value of 120 means growth of 20%.
At twice the number of comparable tasks, revenue reaches 120% of its original level (2 × 60%).
Cloud partners make it easier to reach customers
Claude is available through the cloud platforms of Amazon, Google and Microsoft. The cloud provides computing power and software remotely. Businesses can therefore integrate Claude into an environment they already use. [6][7][8]
Anthropic reports sales through these platforms as gross revenue. It records partner fees separately as an expense. Assessing profitability therefore also means looking at how much of each sale remains after these fees. [1]
Share of half-year revenue from sales through partners' cloud platforms. This is a sales channel. The same revenue can also be billed on a usage basis. [1]
Minimum total amount in USD that the company has committed to pay for Amazon services from May 2026 to April 2036. If usage is lower, it pays the difference under the terms and exceptions in the agreement. [1]
Share of third-quarter 2026 revenue from models released in the six months to the end of September 2026. [1]
What return could Anthropic's growth generate?
Computing costs and partner fees affect how much revenue the company retains as profit. The calculator uses assumed profit in 2030 to estimate the value of all shares. Choose a scenario and use the slider to see how the company's entry valuation affects the return per share.
Share model from the end of 2026 to the end of 2030
A four-year calculation in USD using your own funds without leverage.
The company reported revenue of USD 4.6 billion for 2025. For 2030, the first scenario assumes USD 300 billion and the second USD 500 billion, approximately 65 and 109 times 2025 revenue. We selected these values for comparison. You can adjust both revenue and the profit margin. [1][11]
The slider sets the value of all shares after the IPO. This includes shares into which existing financial instruments would convert at listing. One trillion is 1,000 billion.
- Revenue in 2030
- 300 bn USD
- Net profit margin
- 25%
- Annual earnings multiple (P/E) in 2030
- 30×
- Increase in share count
- 15%
Growth scenario · modelled share return
Over four years, the model investment would increase in value by 30.4%.
The horizontal axis shows the purchase valuation; the vertical axis shows the modelled annual return. All other assumptions stay the same.
The annual percentage represents the constant growth rate at which the investment would reach the amount shown over four years. Both scenarios assume revenue growth and a positive profit. Actual performance may also result in a loss. The result is in dollars, excludes dividends and is before investor fees and taxes. [11]
The calculator models holding a share. For IPOs, Investago offers contracts for difference (CFDs), whose value depends on movements in the share price. Leverage can amplify both gains and losses. The outcome is also affected by the bid–ask spread, financing costs and possible forced closure of the position. The four-year period is used to calculate the company's valuation. [14]
| Assumptions and outcome | Growth scenario | Stronger growth |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue in USD billions | 300 | 500 |
| Net margin / P/E earnings multiple | 25% / 30× | 30% / 35× |
| Additional increase in share count | 15% | 10% |
| Modelled annual return | +6.9% | +33.6% |
| Value of a model USD 10,000 investment after four years | 13,043 USD | 31,818 USD |
What could weaken the growth case
Focus on two questions in the next results. Will customers assign more paid work? And will higher revenue generate sufficient profit after paying for computing power and further development?
Competition and customer departures
A company that pays based on usage can assign some tasks to a competitor. Its choice of model also depends on price and the quality of the results for the specific work.
Unused capacity and more expensive development
Minimum payments for computing power may weigh on financial performance if demand falls short. Further generations of models will require continued research.
Sustainability of part of the revenue
The company estimates that 5–7% of revenue in the first nine months of 2026 came from customers it subsequently found to be violating its rules. [1]
Legal disputes and voting rights
Under the proposal, an entity owned by the founders would obtain 50.1% of the votes on matters submitted to shareholders through a special share. Future public shareholders would therefore hold a minority of votes on these matters. [1]
Share supply after the IPO
After the temporary selling restrictions expire, existing shareholders may offer their shares on the market. More sellers could put pressure on the price, although this does not change the number of shares already issued.
High valuation and the dollar exchange rate
If the purchase price already reflects very favourable expectations, even a growing company can deliver a weak return. At an unchanged dollar share price, a weaker dollar reduces the share's value when converted into euros. A stronger dollar has the opposite effect.
Prepare your comparison before the price is announced
Spending by existing customers increased, and the second quarter brought an operating profit. Use the calculator to choose a revenue and profitability scenario through 2030. Once Anthropic publishes the price and total number of shares after the IPO, you will be able to compare the offer valuation with your scenario.
Sources and methodology
We checked the status of the offering on 2 November 2026. The annual results for 2025 are audited. Figures for individual quarters and the first half of 2026 are unaudited.
- 1Anthropic's S-1 registration statement ↗SEC, 26 October 2026. Financial statements, metric definitions, partner agreements and proposed shareholder rights.
- 2Anthropic's announcement of its S-1 filing ↗Anthropic, 26 October 2026. The company announced the proposed ticker ANT and identified the terms of the offering that had yet to be determined.
- 3Three numbers from Anthropic's planned IPO ↗ProShares, October 2026. Commentary on the company's results and the share of revenue from its largest customers. The percentages come directly from the S-1 filing.
- 4Introducing Claude Opus 5.5 ↗Anthropic, 22 September 2026. The supplier's test results for typical tasks at default settings.
- 5Revenue and net loss ahead of the IPO ↗Reuters via Euronext, 26 October 2026. Context for the first-half results. Exact accounting figures come from the S-1 filing.
- 6Expanded partnership with Amazon ↗Anthropic, 20 April 2026. Computing infrastructure and access to models through partner platforms. The contractual commitment is stated in the S-1 filing.
- 7Partnership with Google and Broadcom ↗Anthropic, 6 April 2026. Expanded computing capacity and model distribution.
- 8Microsoft, NVIDIA and Anthropic partnership ↗Anthropic, 18 November 2025. Making Claude available to Microsoft Azure customers.
- 9Register of Anthropic filings ↗SEC EDGAR. When checked on 2 November 2026, the latest public filing for this offering was the S-1 form dated 26 October.
- 10Series H private funding ↗Anthropic, 28 May 2026. The company raised USD 65 billion at a post-money valuation of USD 965 billion.
- 11How we calculate the share returnFirst, we multiply 2030 revenue by the net margin. We then multiply the resulting net profit by the selected P/E. This gives the modelled value of all shares at the end of the period.We divide the final valuation by the entry valuation. Both amounts must use the same units. We then divide the result by the share-count growth factor. For a 15% increase, we use a factor of 1.15. This gives the ratio of the final to the initial value of one share.We multiply the initial USD 10,000 by this ratio. To obtain the average annual return as a percentage, we subtract one from the fourth root of the ratio and multiply the result by 100. We calculate without intermediate rounding over four years, from the end of 2026 to the end of 2030.Revenue, margin, P/E and share count are the authors' assumptions. Both variants assume a positive net profit and have no assigned probabilities. A different valuation method would be needed if there were a net loss. Any benefit from new capital is reflected only in the selected company valuation for 2030.
- 12How often companies switch AI suppliers ↗Ramp Economics Lab, 6 October 2026. Three-month average of the monthly proportions of companies in the sample that switched suppliers.
- 13Settlement in Bartz v. Anthropic ↗Settlement administrator. The court gave final approval to the settlement on 20 July 2026.
- 14Investago IPO service ↗Investago. CFD pre-order terms, order execution and the product's relationship to the underlying share.
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